Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-9522002-20130518225437/@comment-9839593-20130521152441

Hi all,

I often must read, zat tower events depend on luck. I dare say zis is not so. It all depends on the probabilities for you. The LUCk is being averaged out. Zis means anyone of you makes a high number of trys,i.e. pressing the investigate button. Here now comes the law of large number. This makes the deviation very small roll the dice 10 times an count the 1s: It may happen zat no 1s appear in 10 rolls or there may be 3 or more 1s in 10 rolls this is a very high deviation +/- 1 from the mean (expected value 1.6). Now roll the dice 1000 times - the expected value for number of 1s showing up is 166. And I tell you your number of 1s will be between 146 and 186 with 91% probability. So you see the deviation is only 20/166 ~12%. compared to ~1/1.6 with 10 draws.

You dont need LUCK all you need ist HP (number of tries) and high probabilities! The resulting number of scrolls (or whatever) is up to a small error (=luck) the same for every one (assuming both players do the same number of investigations and as long the number of investigations is high)

A major role will play ze probabilities namely which event magatamas you have that boost you wandering ghost chance or chance for 3 scrolls (or whatever).