Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-6182229-20130207070333/@comment-195.50.155.96-20130312172826

In the bell summon the column with th 1.25% probs says for drawing x times nothing and in the x+1th draw the prob ist 1.25% In this case all the events are exclusive, because I state I draw x times nothing and right after that I draw the demon. Now I can sum up the events and you can see: the Prob of drawing the demon anytime within the 1st and 40th draw is 50% and the prob of drawing the demon anytime within the 1st 17 draws 17x1.25=22.5%

Drawing from ze rare summon with 0.69 % prob for 5* (where ever it comes from):

prob 4 drawing x time consecutively nothing is (1-0.0069)^x

prob 4 drawing the 5* exactly at the x+1st draw: (1-0.0069)^x * 0.0069

These events are mutually exclusive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I can sum the probs up

(As for the prior comments please rethink after drawing 1000 times is your probability then 690%?)

Results are: prob 4 drawing the 5* within ze 1st and ze 17th draw 11%

prob 4 drawing 5* within the 1st and 62nd draw 34%.

The expectation value of this distribution ist 144!!! You need on avg 144 draws to reach one 5*.