Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131207054710/@comment-1328622-20131210070729

Actually, you guys are pretty much all wrong in some way.

First of all, you do not have an equal chance with melusine/motochika as the other 3's, believe me. I still don't have motochika and I only have one melusine, but I've pulled probably more than 20 copies of every other 3*.

In fact, from my experience, the transmigrate to 5's are just as rare if not more than the other 5's, the total chance of pulling any 5, transmigrate or not, is unlikely to be much if any higher than 2.1%. Keep in mind there's 54 cards in 5* alone, adding 10-11 transmigrates (and that's being generous) will hardly boost it to even 3%.

Let's just go with 3% 5's, (again, this is a generous estimation), the chances of getting a 5 out of 30-day is 1-0.97^30 = about 60%, which is, all considerations, pretty good.

As for any other theorizing, as far as my experiences go (which, given that I have 149 gold apples on hand, is probably more than most of you's), is most likely to be wrong. This is caused by the same force that creates superstitions and religions:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

The human tendency to see pattern where nothing actually exists.

To a human, if you flipped a coin 20 times and it all came up heads, it is far more surprising than, say, you flipped 19 heads and then one tail, even though, statistically, the two events are just as likely. In fact, the human mind expect coin flips to come up heads tails heads tails, even though the perfect alternation is just as likely to occur as a line of heads.

You might believe your rituals and sorceries affect 5* production, but really, it doesn't. To rigorously prove that there's statistical significance, you need to prove that the mean diverges from the stated mean in a controlled test by 2 standard deviations.

This will likely cost you more than a million dollars, literally. For a statistic as little a 2.1% of 5 stars, you'll likely need at least 100k thousand samples for both sides, if not more.

Rare summoning is stressful enough without voodoo, don't add to people's misery.