Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131207054710/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131210063011

OP here.

@WC who provided the CS547 link

Thanks for that (is that a graduate level course?). I think I understand the bulk of what it was talking about with the memoryless property. I hope people can see why at any single point in time, the probability of an event happinging in this scenario won't change (unless Zynga actually changes the probabilities)

I still stand by my logic. Though I've not done stats in a while, it logically makes more sense (to me) that the probability that you would get at least one 5*/potential 5* card over 30 days is one (1) minus the probability that every single day for 30 days you don't get a card that is either a 5* or would lead to a 5*.

The calculation, from what I recall of stats, is completely independent, hence why you would take 0.9314 to the 30th power. Basically every day, you have a flat 93.13% chance of NOT drawing a 5*/potential 5* card.

Unless of course, you weren't talking to me with your optimism comment, since my original calculation of 47% for just a 5* card is pretty pessimistic. (Which is to say, if you get this 30day pack, you only stand a 47% chance of it even giving you a 5* card.)

I'm less certain about the 88%, simply because I'm not sure you can add it all together like I did to get 6.86% rate that on any one draw, you'll get a 5* or potential 5* card. (Though it does make sense in a way, since individually, the 3* and 4* going to 5* card chance should be added to that of the 5* chance.)

I will note, however, this does not take into account if Zynga has some hidden parameter in its programming that denotes the system to either give out X number of 5* cards in a day or has some kind of counter or whatever. I was merely trying to have a discussion of this deal from a purely statistical standpoint and whether or not it would be worth doing.