Board Thread:General Discussion/@comment-6182229-20130207070333/@comment-195.50.155.96-20130312170617

Summon Bell: I calculated the probability of drawing x consecutive times not the lead demon: Prob 4 lead demon= 1/ number left

Prob 4 no-lead demon in this draw = 1 - Prob 4 lead demon

Prob 4 no-lead demons in all prior draws= PRDUCT of (1 - 1/(number left)) with number running from 80 down to how many draws you want to calc.

The result is: eg. for drawing the demon at exactly the 11th draw: (1-1/80)*(1-1/79)*...(1-1/71)*  1/70 =1.25%. And the probability of drawing 33x nothing and at the 34th times the lead demon is 1.25%. The expectation value is u need 40 tries x 980=39200 gold -> u buy 5200 gold for 50$ -> 39200/5200*50=376$ on the average!! here is the math with excel formulas:

sorry I am in Germany...