Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131207054710/@comment-146.187.115.32-20131210003919

how do people not realize that the chance of getting a 5* on any given day is different than the chance of getting a 5* throught the whole 30 days?

Yes you have a 2.1% chance any given day, even if you have already gotten a 5*. Getting a 5* on the 5th day has no effect on your chance the 6th day.

That being said, the overall question is what is the probability of getting one throughout the entire event. This is much higher than 2.1% because you have more chances at that 2.1%. If I were to flip a coin 3 times there is a probability I would get 3 heads, a probabillity I would get 3 tails, and THT, HTH, TTH, HHT, these cannot all be 50% as there is more than two outcomes of three coin tosses.

47% seems right, I haven't done any math, but hopefully logic will tell you that you have a higher chance than 2.1% of getting a 5* over the course of 30 summons.