Talk:"Divine Dancer in the Snow"/@comment-24182082-20150113055424/@comment-25523655-20150113130655

Basically, you calculate the total probabilities of the scenarios in which you would win against your opponent (or alternatively, the total probabilities of the scenarios in which you'd lose against your opponent). Here is the algorithm I use:

To make it simple, assume that you're battling a SWG with a non-defensive skill and that your team can win as long as at least any 3 of your cards trigger, and you lose with fewer than 3 triggers. Let a, b, c, d, e respectively be the trigger probability of your 5 cards. (Sidenote: the Yasushi calculator uses 0.8, 0.7, 0.5 and 0.35 for VHTR, HTR, NTR, LTR. Add 0.15 for leader trigger rate bonus.)
 * The probability of all of your cards triggering is a*b*c*d*e
 * The probability of only 1 of your cards not triggering is a*b*c*d*(1-e) + a*b*c*(1-d)*e + ...
 * The probability of only 2 of your cards not triggering is a*b*c*(1-d)+(1-e) + a*b*(1-c)*(1-d)*e + ...
 * Add these together. This is the probability of you winning.

It becomes a bit more complicated if your opponent has defensive skills, since you'd have to account for the probability of their triggering as well, but this is the basic idea.