Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131207054710/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131210071955

Hold up with the preaching there... I'm agreeing that its low. With the statistic of 2.1% for a 5*, the probability of getting a 5* if you draw a single card every day is indeed 47%. It has nothing to do with apophenia. (Though I don't think you were talking to me about that...)  Apophenia would be those people that are thinking that drawing cards at certain times would give them better results when, in fact, the chance remains the same. In fact, your thing on apophenia goes well with the text on the memoryless property (give it a read if you haven't already).

Like I mentioned, however, this is from a purely statistical standpoint. Pessimistically, Zynga is ultimately a business. I wouldn't put it past them to include hidden parameters. Say, while the percentage is set, the system limits the number of cards given out, or something similar.

In the end, this thread was to let people know numerically where they would stand if they decided to get the 30day rare summon. My personal suggestion (though hard to follow) is to remain completely pessimistic so that if you actually get a card, you're pleasantly surprised. Unfortunately, since people will be spending real money on this, I think most of them will have some lingering expectations to get a good card out of it.