Board Thread:Event Discussion/@comment-70.166.177.77-20131207054710/@comment-17760674-20131209185050

101.164.120.198 wrote: I'm afraid you're all to optimistic. Statistics in this case doesn't have a memory, each day is independant as Onibakaro said. In coin flipping, you are given a very limited pool (only two, if its not one it has to be the other) so prediction can make its way in and with each flip thats not a head (for example) the chance that the next one will be a tail will increase. But with these rare summons, the pool you're drawing from is much larger. Just because you summon one daemon doesn't mean you won't be able to summon it again, and statistical memory shouldn't be considered if you want and accurate outcome.

Each time you summon, the chance of getting a daemon is the same as the last time you summoned. The chance of getting a 5* is 2.1% and will remain 2.1% throughout the thirty day period. It won't get worse, but it also wont get better. I have to admit that I'm a little confused. I understand what you're saying, but I feel like you're not making sense, because what you're saying is exactly what we're doing... right? (Look at the post above yours; the logic should make sense, even if a few steps--aka common sense--aren't shown)

... unless you're saying we're too optimistic for including the transmigrating cards :P